all you need to know about modelling.
In a meeting this morning, a very successful Economics Professor* said to me;
“I've tried [econometric time series analysis] a few times but I've never been able to estimate anything useful.”
He is a very bright fellow, and is straight up about things. He has also declared that the parameter values that he is using in a particular model literally “are no more than guesses”.
* He does have a name, but I have a job.